Eastport Maine
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September 27, 2024
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Steady warmth leads to one of hottest summers in Quoddy area
by Edward French

 

      The record books now show that even Downeast Maine and the Fundy Isles, known for their cooler summer temperatures from sea breezes, are feeling the heat from climate change. Maine saw its warmest summer on record, and the Quoddy region experienced one that was as hot as the record-breaker three years ago.
      Ed Mekelburg of Robbinston, a weather observer for the National Weather Service, says that the mean temperature for June, July and August 2 was 66.40 F, which ties the figure set in 2021 for the hottest summer in the area. "It's not that much extreme heat but a steady warmth" that was felt this summer, he notes. He points out that through August there were nine consecutive months with above normal temperatures in this area. And on September 18 the temperature in Robbinston was 880, with a higher temperature occurring later in the season only twice previously in the past 30 years.
      "A few years ago, we never had all these days in a stretch," he says, noting that the temperature in this area has been increasing on average about a quarter of a degree every five years. "It's really starting to speed up," Mekelburg says. "There's been rapid change in the past five years. Each year becomes hotter than the previous one."
      Mekelburg's observations are supported by other researchers. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. sweltered through its fourth hottest summer on record, with many cities breaking all time heat records. The first eight months of 2024 also ranked as the second warmest year to date, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. This summer the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 73.80, or 2.5 degrees above average. Maine, New Hampshire, Arizona, California and all sizzled through their warmest summer on record.
      The 2024 update of Maine Climate Council's report, "Scientific Assessment of Climate Change and Its Effects in Maine," states that the past four years in Maine have ranked among the 10 warmest on record. According to the Maine Climate Office, over the past century Maine's statewide mean annual temperature has increased by about 30, and the eight warmest years have all occurred since 1998. Since the early 1900s, the average duration of winter in terms of temperature and snow cover has declined by about two weeks, with the temperature being 50 warmer compared to a century ago, while the length of summer has increased. According to the Maine Climate Council, temperature projections for Maine are for a 2-40 increase by 2050 and up to 100 by 2100.
      Places throughout the world are also witnessing the heat increase, with a suburb of New Delhi, India, on May 29 of this year measuring a temperature of 1260, potentially the highest temperature recorded in one of the hottest countries on Earth. "People are dying from it. You couldn't see more than half a mile with the thick haze and ozone," Mekelburg notes of the heat, and he points out that ground level ozone causes one's eyes to burn and water. "People couldn't breathe properly. It was life-threatening." In the U.S., Phoenix, Arizona, recorded 113 consecutive days this summer that were 1000 or above. "The temperatures in some places are just going out of control," he observes matter-of-factly.
      "It's going to get worse, and sea-level rise is accelerating also," Mekelburg says. Maine Climate Council projections call for the sea level to rise by three to five feet by the end of this century, but based on the largest uncertainties in sea-level rise projections, it could be by over eight feet by 2100, which "would bury Eastport," he notes. In addition, the Maine Climate Council's Scientific and Technical Subcommittee states that a one-foot increase in sea level will lead to a 15-fold increase in the frequency of nuisance flooding. This past winter, numerous towns in Maine and New Brunswick suffered damage to wharves, roads and other infrastructure caused by coastal flooding during strong wind storms.
      While Mekelburg's weather station in Robbinston is 115 feet above sea level and will have much more time before it is under water, he notes that severe winds are having an effect also, with the December 18, 2023, storm toppling the tower that he used for weather observations. With wind speeds of 72 mph recorded in Robbinston, he believes that storm was even more destructive to trees than the Ice Storm of 1998 and caused the most wind damage in this area since the hurricane in 1954. "The forests were devastated in some places. It will take decades to come back." And the Maine Climate Council points out that winters storms are projected to become more intense.
      Along with the heat, sea-level rise and wind storms, Mekelburg notes, "The big thing this month is the dryness. It's extremely dry." With only 0.24 inches of rain as of September 18, the month could end up being the second driest month historically in this area. The driest month ever in the Quoddy region was in May 1911, when Eastport had only 0.13 inches of rain.
      "The heat is something else, but the dryness is even more. On some trees the leaves are just shriveling up and falling off, and the streams are drying up. There's no rain in sight at all for next week. It looks bone dry," Mekelburg observes. "This is a bad pattern to be in, and it could contribute to forest fires," he says, noting that there has been smoke in the sky from the wildfires in Canada and "the fire situation in the West has been out of control." He adds, "The water table could be in trouble if it goes on for a period of time."
      "It's really bad," Mekelburg says, in a plain-spoken voice. "I don't like to see it like this."
      He notes that the forest fire in May 2023 near St. Andrews was the worst fire ever in that area. Power was lost in portions of New Brunswick, people were evacuated from over 250 homes and more than 1,300 acres were burned. "Because the river's so wide, it couldn't jump the river" to Maine, but the power loss did affect Calais, with grocery stores losing produce because of the outage.
      The dry weather is being seen throughout much of the U.S. According to NOAA, the average precipitation for the contiguous U.S. in August was 2.46 inches, ranking in the driest third of the climate record. Precipitation was below average across much of the South, with Alabama and Mississippi seeing their driest August on record, and Tennessee seeing its second driest August.

Far-reaching impacts
      The impacts of the changing climate are far-reaching. According to NOAA, just this year there have been 20 separate billion dollar weather and climate disasters so far. The total cost of these events exceeds $53 billion, and they have resulted in at least 149 fatalities.
      The effects are being felt from the economy to loss of species. The Maine Climate Council's report points to some of the impacts stemming from climate change, including increasing illnesses and deaths from extreme weather; adverse mental health impacts; and greater food insecurity because of higher prices. Maine will see the second largest home insurance rate increase in the country this year, driven largely by increased storm severity and associated damages. Climate change will affect the supply and demand of tourism and impact those working in economies tied to climate-sensitive resources, including lobstering and timber harvesting.
      The Gulf of Maine is warming faster than 97% of the world's ocean surface and is experiencing near-constant ocean heat waves. The council's report notes that the increased ocean temperature has decreased "the size and quality of the food source that supports the marine food web, causing species to shift." The state's lobster harvest in 2022 declined by 26% in volume from its historic high in 2016, and communities that are heavily invested in only one fishery such as lobster face resilience planning challenges, the report points out. Warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons, though, present new opportunities and both positive and negative impacts for the state's farmers.
      Climate change also is placing a quarter of all species on Earth at risk of extinction, and eight new wildlife species were added to the Maine State List of Endangered and Threatened Species in 2023, with many of the additions driven by climate change. Warming temperatures also are expected to lead to the spread of more invasive species in Maine, the report notes.
      While such rapid change that affects so much of life on Earth can lead to despair, the Maine Climate Council's report points out that "hope theory can be a framework for action in the face of climate change." Its components are: goal setting, agency thinking and pathways thinking. "Hope theory provides specific and systematic actions that can reduce anxiety and increase well-being," the report states. And having a roadmap, such as the state's climate action plan, Maine Won't Wait, "is a key strategy for nurturing hope." The plan is filled with strategies and goals to emit less carbon, produce energy from renewable sources and protect natural resources, communities and people from the effects of climate change.

 

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