In an effort to better understand the increasing threat from rising ocean waters and worsening winter storms, a collaborative project between the Gulf of Maine Research Institute (GMRI) and Maine Coast Heritage Trust (MCHT) is calling for residents to make and submit observations to a collective online database. Doing so will help the state prepare for as much as 8.8 feet of sea level rise within the next century if measures to decrease emissions aren't taken. The project was the topic of a community meetup in Stockford Park in Lubec on August 16.
      "The Gulf of Maine is one of the fastest warming bodies of water," explained Stephanie Sun of GMRI. "It's warming at three times the rate of other global oceans, and one of the results of that is sea level rise." Along with thermal expansion, which causes water to take up more space, another factor contributing to the rising waters is the melting of land based ice, Sun said. "Here in Maine, we've seen a steady increase in sea levels year to year."
      While GMRI's intermediate scenario hasn't changed and still anticipates a 1.5 foot rise by 2050 and four feet by 2100 -- provided we "cut emissions a bit but not drastically," Sun said -- projections for the worst case scenario are now calling for a rise of up to 8.8 feet by the 2120s.
      "That's super high, and that would just be our average sea level," Sun said. "That wouldn't include what happens when a strong coastal storm comes through." Last January's storm, for example, brought three feet of storm surge on top of the high tide.
      "That's why it's really important to document coastal flooding so that we can better understand our threshold for impact and be able to tie that to a number," Sun said. "Gathering community input to understand that impact is critical."
      "We have over 5,000 miles of tidally-influenced coastline in Maine, so it's really great if we are able to pair what we're seeing with the real-time water level and weather data," added Morgan Glynn of GMRI. "That'll help us for our short-term adaptation and, as we think about the long-term, building more resilient coastal towns."
      To that end, GMRI created its online database and has been holding community meetups along the coast to encourage participation since 2022. Different observation sites have been established in each community, with Lubec's four sites being Stockford Park, Mowry Beach, the town landing and on South Road. More than 500 observations have been uploaded to the database so far.
      "It's been really great to get people out to start making some of these observations and tying that to 'what is this storm surge going to mean in real life?' and 'what does that mean to this section of this road and entry?'" said Kyle Winslow of MCHT, which is GMRI's local partner in the effort.
      Part of the goal of the project is to engage town and county managers in accessing the records and observations regularly to gain a better understanding of the impact of water-level rise and plans to address it. Accordingly, GMRI worked with four communities -- Machias, Saint George, Boothbay Harbor and Portland -- when the database launched to do a deep dive on adopting the online tool, along with introducing it as part of the local school curriculum. "While it is a platform to submit observations and data, it is also geared towards planning, not just reporting, by connecting observed water levels to flood thresholds," Sun explained.
      Ideally, GRMI is hoping that observations will be made at each site a few times a year, particularly during flood events or king or high tides, Sun said. It's also important to make observations during calm days, as these serve as important comparisons.
      Lubec residents in attendance at the meetup responded favorably to the effort. "When we come here every spring, we can see how much the shore has receded since the last fall," said Diana Hoppin, who, along with her husband Steve, are summer residents who have been returning to Mowry Beach for the past 16 years after Steve's dad built the property in the 1970s. "We can see the difference every year."
      "There's so much reconfiguration we have to do," said Janet Weston, who lives along Whiting Bay in Trescott and has been there since 1974. "It's starting to become more prevalent in our way of thinking, but people are still trying to build on the shore and get close to the water. They may end up very close, and they may end up in it, and that's something that I'm seeing on my shore."
      To submit or view observations, visit investigate.gmri.org/project/coastal_flooding. Those with mobile phones can submit their observations on the fly, while those without mobile phones can print observation sheets to use in the field and fill out the online form afterward. Additional community meetups to gather and discuss data are tentatively planned in Lubec during high tides on Saturdays, October 19 and November 16, by MCHT.