Business and community leaders on both sides of the St. Croix River hope that cooler heads prevail over talk of tariffs. Earlier this month U.S. President Donald Trump delayed threatened tariffs on imports from Canada for 30 days, but they and Canadian counter tariffs still hang over the heads of area residents.
      Aside from what it might mean for family, friends and neighbours on opposite sides of the river, some people fear that tariffs would mean higher prices for electricity, home heating oil, lumber and gasoline in Maine. Tariffs could discourage people from crossing the river to shop. A drop in the value of the Canadian dollar might tip Charlotte County consumers towards "supporting our own."
      Tariffs could have implications for lobster, wood, blueberries, farmed salmon and even, Calais Mayor Marcia Rogers says, hay for horses. She buys hay for her horses in Canada.
      St. Stephen Mayor Allan MacEachern approached Rogers about tariffs as part of a strategy by a coalition of Canadian border mayors to reach out to nearby American mayors. Rogers confirms that she sent emails to U.S. Congressman Jared Golden and U.S. Senator Susan Collins, but she has yet to hear back. "It really does impact our economy and our way of life. I mean, we have family ? most of us have family on both sides," Rogers says.

Electricity and fuel oil prices
      Aside from hay, Rogers notes that electricity from NB Power keeps the lights on in Calais. Maine Public Advocate Heather Sanborn, appointed last month, says that 58,000 customers in parts of Washington and Aroostook counties get their power from New Brunswick.
      Her office has calculated tariffs could add $8 million to $10 million to wholesale costs for the 58,000 customers relying on NB Power, but she could not say how this might shake out for retail customers. "Electricity has not previously been subject to tariffs at the U.S. Canadian border, and so we're in quite unchartered territory," she says, adding that the proposed tariffs "create both confusion and uncertainty as to what could happen to rates and that they saddle Mainers with additional costs. You know, it's February and we're using a lot of electricity. It's a terrible time for this to be impacting Mainers."
      Tariffs could raise prices for heating oil and gasoline, too, with much of both these products coming from the Irving Oil refinery in Saint John. "The majority of the product produced at our Saint John refinery is bound for the U.S. market, reinforcing our company's critical role as a contributor to Canadian refined petroleum exports to the U.S. annually. This tariff will result in price increases for our U.S. customers and have impacts on energy security and the broader economy. Given the importance of safeguarding the energy supply chain, we urge all stakeholders within government and industry to come together and work toward a resolution as soon as possible," the company says in a statement.
      Aside from higher prices at the pump for Washington County motorists, the proposed tariffs could have an unintended consequence. If tariffs raise prices for gasoline in Calais, some Charlotte County motorists who routinely gas up "over the river" might decide to buy their gasoline in Canada, especially if the Canadian dollar drops in value.

Impact on consumers, lobster industry
      Dr. Rachel Bouvier, economics professor at the University of Southern Maine in Portland, agrees that the proposed tariffs would raise prices for consumers. "At least on paper the United States has a pretty progressive income tax system, but tariffs by their nature would be regressive," she says, adding, "The tariffs would be imposed on a lot of commodities such as lumber and home heating oil that people need, so that's going to have a disproportionate impact on lower income households."
      Bouvier says that higher costs for home heating oil could speed up Maine's push to find alternatives but also raise the cost of the "relatively clean" power from Hydro Quebec.
      Tariffs would challenge the interconnected lobster industries in both countries. "The lobster industry, both in Maine and Canada, they are competitors in one way, but also Maine has much less lobster processing capacity than Canada does. And so a lot of times Maine lobstermen will end up sending their lobsters to Canada to be processed, and then they get reimported back into Maine," Bouvier says.
      "The Canadian and U.S. lobster industries are completely linked," says Geoff Irvine, executive director of the Lobster Council of Canada based in Halifax. Lobster landings in Canada totalled about 220 million pounds last year, compared to about 84 million pounds in Maine, Irvine says. Canada has more processing capacity for lobster, most but not all of it in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, but Canadian processors still buy 40% of the Maine catch every year, especially in summer and fall to keep plants open when many Canadian seasons are closed. Americans, however, buy about 75% of lobster processed in Canada, some of it caught in Maine waters, Irvine explains. Maine processors buy Canadian lobster this time of year to keep their plants running when most of the American fleet is not fishing, he says. The United States is Canada's second biggest market for live lobster after China, Irvine explains.
      "It's really about the seasons," Irvine says, adding, "They fish in the summer and fall when we don't fish. It's complementary. That's the key message -- that our fishing is different than their fishing, so that the production is complementary on each side of the border."
      Marianne LaCroix, executive director of the Maine Lobster Marketing Collaborative based in Portland, agrees. "In the U.S. we catch the majority of the lobster in the summer and fall, and then in Canada most of it is caught in the winter and spring, so that is a good combination for year round customers, people who want the product year round," she says. She cites figures from 2023 showing that the American industry exported $188 million worth of lobster to Canada, but the Americans bought $117 million worth of live lobster caught in Canadian waters.
      "Processing facilities on both sides of the border get lobster product from both sides of the border," she says, adding, "And there are companies that have operations on both sides of the border, as well."
      LaCroix and Irvine both attended the 20th annual U.S. Canada Lobster Town Meeting sponsored by the Lobster Institute, this year at Bar Harbour on January 29-30. "We had a panel of dealers talking about the issues, and it was generally considered that it [tariffs] would be disruptive to the fisheries on both sides of the border," LaCroix says.
      Herring, farmed salmon and other fish products also cross the border. Cooke Aquaculture declined to comment on the tariff issue, but the New Brunswick company employs about 200 people in Maine, largely in Washington County. The company's primary processing plant is in St. George, while value-added processing is done across the border in Machiasport.
      "We don't even know if the tariffs are ever going to happen. If they do, it will very negative. It won't be good. It will mean that we have to put our prices up by 25%, but our customers won't accept putting our prices up by 25%," Irvine says.
      Irvine hopes, at least, that tariffs will not hit lobsters coming and going. The Canadian government agreed to leave lobster off the list of items subject to counter tariffs. "That list came out a couple of days ago. You will notice that U.S. lobster is not on that list. In fact, there is very little seafood there. Where we can control it, we're going to keep tariffs off U.S. lobster because we need that lobster," he says.

Effect on pulp mill
      Woodland Pulp buys hardwood from New Brunswick and Maine to make pulp and then turns some of it into tissue products at the company's mills in Baileyville. Woodland Pulp, owned by International Grand Investment Corporation (IGIC), says it is the largest employer in Washington County with about 310 people working at Baileyville. This company goes back to the St. Croix Paper Company started by Calais and St. Stephen businessmen about 1904. The first mill was built in 1905 06 and has provided a reliable market for wood from both sides of the river ever since.
      "Our Baileyville-based operations have been and will continue to monitor the current tariff discussions with respect to Canadian based imports. We're concerned, because we know the tariff levels being discussed on goods and energy will only add to our mill's operating costs, the extent to which is presently being modeled by our financial group," spokesman Scott Beal says in a statement.
      "It's well known that our unique geographical location on the St. Croix River effectively positions us to engage in a considerable volume of trade (imports and exports) with the Canadian Maritime provinces. This has been the situation for decades. We are hopeful, during the next 30 days, that this matter will be brought to a successful conclusion where our international border has become more secure for both countries and the proposed tariffs will no longer be a focal point between our two countries," the statement concludes.

Possible harm to goodwill
      "Personally, I'm not convinced there will be tariffs," Bouvier, the economist, says, adding, "I think that Trump is using tariffs, the threat of tariffs, as a negotiating tool, but I think that anyone who tries to predict what President Trump is going to do is foolish, so I can't say that for sure."
      However, she does worry about relationships. "It's an integrated economy and, you know, it can have a real effect not just on the economy but on goodwill between the U.S. and Canada," she says. "I don't want to spoil the relationship," Mayor MacEachern says, expressing the hope that Calais people do not take it personally when St. Stephen people talk about buying Canadian and supporting local business. Tariffs would hurt St. Stephen enterprises including Ganong Bros. and Arauco, he says. "We got a big punch in the gut, so to speak, and now we've got to figure out our way," he says. Other media have reported fans booing each other's national anthems at hockey games in both countries. "Me, personally, I would never boo anyone's anthem," MacEachern says. He wants leaders to "sit down and work this out."
      Rogers, too, does not want the current difficulties to hurt relations in the Calais/St. Stephen border community. "I hope it doesn't. I hope people realize that we don't have a lot of influence on the federal government and what's going on right now," she says.